Wilmer Flores: The RBI Merchant

Wilmer Flores is an RBI machine.

He’s having what could be described as a typical Wilmer season—except it's not even July, and he’s already just nine RBIs short of his career high of 60. That begs the question: Is Flores having a truly exceptional year beneath the surface, getting lucky, or is he simply one of the most clutch hitters in the league?

To get to the bottom of this, I built a linear regression model using a set of key underlying metrics that typically correlate with run production. These included:

k_percent
bb_percent
wOBA and xwOBA
sweet_spot_percent
barrel_batted_rate
hard_hit_percent
whiff_percent
swing_percent

The model performed reasonably well, with a mean absolute error of 5.8 RBIs. When I plugged Wilmer’s stats into the model, it predicted he should have about 31 RBIs at this point in the season. In reality? He has 51. That’s a difference of 20 RBIs, or 3.44 standard errors above the mean—a massive deviation in statistical terms.

In other words: Wilmer Flores is a clear outlier.

Even if we strip out his explosive 8-RBI game, he’d still be projected at 43 RBIs—far beyond the model's expectation and still a significant outlier. So what’s driving this overperformance?

A Clutch Beast?

Part of the explanation may be situational hitting. Flores has long had a reputation for delivering in high-leverage moments. His approach at the plate doesn’t change much under pressure—he swings early and often, and doesn’t shy away from attacking pitches in the zone. That consistency may be serving him well in RBI opportunities.

There’s also the possibility that he’s benefiting from lineup dynamics. Flores often hits behind players who get on base—meaning he’s been given ample opportunities to drive in runs. But even so, the rate at which he’s cashing in those chances remains well above league norms.

Another factor could simply be luck—baseball is noisy, and sometimes balls drop in. But the magnitude of Wilmer’s overperformance suggests something more than random variance.

Wilmer Flores - the outlier

Wilmer Flores - a league of his own

The Flores Formula

While Wilmer Flores may not lead the league in flash, there’s a method to his quiet dominance. He’s a veteran hitter with a simple, aggressive approach, and in 2025, it’s translating into one of the most efficient RBI seasons in the league—if not the most surprising.

Whatever the cause, one thing is clear: Wilmer Flores is the RBI merchant.