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Giants Trade Deadline Analysis

The most fundamental question we must ask: buy or sell?

Buster's first season got off to a piping hot start, and relative to what we've achieved in the last couple years, I'm pretty excited. Albeit, if we separate out the performance of players who Buster has signed in his tenure as Head of Baseball Operations, it is rather disappointing — thanks Willy.


He did have a role in signing Chapman, extending Webb, and signing Jung Hoo Lee. Buster also avoided some big-name pitching who now have serious injury concerns.


The real winner for this Giants team has been the arms. The starting rotation is competing at an incredible level. Webb and Ray have been amazing. Harrison, Birdsong, and Roupe all show great promise. The bullpen has been the best in baseball. Shoutout Randy Rodriguez.


The bats have done just barely enough to win games. The Giants have won their last 6 games by one run. One thing they've shown they can do as good as any team in baseball is come back from behind.


The reality of the buy/sell question: with this staff and bullpen, you have to buy. Buster Posey has brought life to San Francisco and historically that's the most fundamental ingredient — along with the legendary staff that brought 3 World Series titles to SF.


So where do we need to buy?


The first thing I'll say is we have a few restrictions. To be more specific, Willy Adames' contract and Pat Bailey's glove. So we won't be looking at a shortstop or catcher even though those have been large offensive holes.


The most blaring gap has been first base; and don't get me wrong, Dom Smith has Giants baseball written all over him, but to contend, the Giants need some serious positive run value — and this is the obvious place.


Here is the xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-base Average) for first basemen in baseball. Those labeled are on teams that are below .500. They are, in theory, sellers.


First Base xwOBA

Keep in mind that the requirement to be considered is having played more than a game at first base this season, so there are some players not typically thought of as first basemen here. It's time to get creative so we will consider them.


Possible players:

Nolan Schanuel, Josh Bell, Eric Wagaman, Josh Naylor, Lenyn Sosa, Hunter Goodman, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Ryan McMahon, Josh Smith, Matt Olson, Miguel Vargas, Jake Burger, Ryan O'Hearn, Nathaniel Lowe, Tyler Soderstrom, Austin Riley, Taylor Ward


Let's take out some names I think aren't possible: Josh Naylor, Lourdes Gurriel, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Tyler Soderstrom.


Ryan O'Hearn quickly becomes the far and away best candidate to fill the Giants' hole. Let's take a deeper dive into O'Hearn, but we won't get fixated (as any Giants fan knows, he's far too good of a fit for us to actually get him).


O'Hearn is a lefty hitter with some pop and some speed. He has played a ton of positions this year with over 100 innings at 1B and RF. So, he has the ability to play outfield if Bryce Eldridge is called up at some point this year.


Potential lineup with O'Hearn:

  • JHL (been a beast at the leadoff spot)
  • Willy Adames (heating up)
  • Heliot Ramos (dawg)
  • Ryan O'Hearn (dawg)
  • Matt Chapman (see above)
  • Eldridge
  • Wilmer (RBI machine)
  • Pat Bailey (starting to see it)
  • Fitzy (bunt)